![]() ![]() We must accept that Covid-19 will probably never go away entirely.įor some observers, the idea of quantifying human life in economic terms sounds heartless. According to the CDC, swine flu has continued to kill about 7,500 Americans each year since the outbreak in 2009. Governor Murphy has never ordered streets and highways closed despite more than one life lost each day in New Jersey car crashes. These are impossible standards to meet, and not applied to any other danger or disease. Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey has stated that there “is no cost that is too high to save any one precious life.” Some infectious-disease specialists argue that restrictions should remain in place until the infection rate is nearly zero. Newsom is not the only one taking a hard line. Neither the Bay Area nor California have put together a clear plan for reopening. A vaccine could be more than a year away and like the swine flu virus, Covid-19 may never even get a silver-bullet cure. The state’s 5,000 Covid-19 hospitalizations represent a small fraction of its approximately 75,000 staffed beds. ![]() Governor Gavin Newsom refuses to set one, saying only that the end is “weeks away.” Newsom has outlined criteria to lift the order, but some of his requirements-such as sufficient hospital capacity and progress toward a treatment-are unnecessary or unrealistic. Yet California shows no inclination to ease up. Even New York, far harder hit than California, has tentatively scheduled an end to its statewide “pause” on May 15. Millions of people could have their jobs back tomorrow if shelter-in-place orders were eased-and as the impact of the virus wanes, it makes sense to begin lifting them, as European nations such as Norway and Austria are doing, and as Texas has begun to do. Luckily, recovery should be easier than from a typical recession, since this one is a forced abnormality. People talk openly not just of recession but depression. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has said that the economy is deteriorating “with alarming speed.” In a tragic irony, hospitals that worried about an overflow of Covid-19 patients are now laying off workers due to cancellation of elective surgeries and also, perhaps, sick people avoiding treatment for fear of infection. Transit agencies face enormous financial losses because of lost riders. Businesses everywhere are struggling, with small businesses faring the worst and museums and nonprofits in jeopardy, too. ![]() Almost one-third of Americans did not pay their rent this month. Meantime, some 26 million people have filed for unemployment nationally over the past month, including 3.2 million in California, a crushing tide of layoffs that dwarfs prior job-loss records. California’s 16 northernmost counties, with a population of more than 1 million, have seen only 181 confirmed cases-a lower known infection rate than South Korea’s. The seven-day average for new infections in the Bay Area is the lowest in a month. According to the website rt.live, the effective reproduction number (known as Rt or Re) in California, and in almost every other state, is below 1, indicating a decline in infections. The number of patients hospitalized for Covid-19 in the Bay Area has dropped almost every day for a week. Data on new Covid-19 cases show a clear flattening of the curve. The health situation in the Bay Area, and California as a whole, appears far from dire. A rational cost-benefit analysis of the public-health response should encourage California and the Bay Area to begin a phased reopening. The announcement comes as California’s Covid-19 situation is looking better, in terms of infections, while the economic, social, and even health repercussions of its stay-at-home orders mounts. The new orders very minimally loosen restrictions to allow construction and some outdoor shops and activities, but most businesses remain closed. On Wednesday, Bay Area health officials extended shelter-in-place orders through May, bringing their duration to 11 weeks. ![]()
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